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Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk
Health officials in China have published the first details of more than 44,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began.
Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly most at risk.
The research also points to the high risk to medical staff.
A hospital director in the city of Wuhan died from the virus on Tuesday.
Liu Zhiming, 51, was the director of the Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan – one of the leading hospitals in the virus epicentre. He is one of the most senior health officials to die so far.
Hubei, whose capital is Wuhan, is the worst affected province in the country.
The report by the CCDC shows the province’s death rate is 2.9% compared with 0.4% in the rest of the country.
The findings put the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%.
China’s latest official figures released on Tuesday put the overall death toll at 1,868 and 72,436 infections.
Officials reported 98 new deaths and 1,886 new cases in the past day, with 93 of those deaths and 1,807 infections in Hubei province – the epicentre of the outbreak.
More than 12,000 people have recovered, according to Chinese authorities.
What does the study tell us?
The paper by the CCDC, released on Monday and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, looked at more than 44,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in China as of 11 February.
While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.
It finds that 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical. The number of deaths among those infected, known as the fatality rate, remains low but rises among those over 80 years old.
Looking at the sex ratio, men are more likely to die (2.8%) than women (1.7%).
The study also identifies which existing illnesses put patients at risk. It puts cardiovascular disease at number one, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.
Pointing out the risk to medical staff, the paper says that a total of 3,019 health workers have been infected, 1,716 of which were confirmed cases. Five had died by 11 February, which was the last day of data included in the research.
On 13 February, China broadened its definition of how to diagnose people, including “clinically diagnosed cases” which previously were counted separate from “confirmed cases”.
What does it say about the future?
Looking forward, the paper finds that “the epidemic curve of onset of symptoms” peaked around 23-26 January before declining up to 11 February.
The study suggests that the downward trend in the overall epidemic curve could mean that “isolation of whole cities, broadcast of critical information (e.g., promoting hand washing, mask wearing, and care seeking) with high frequency through multiple channels, and mobilization of a multi-sector rapid response teams is helping to curb the epidemic”.
But the authors also warn that with many people returning from a long holiday, the country “needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic”.
China’s response to the virus has seen the lockdown of Wuhan – the largest city in Hubei – and the rest of the province as well as severe travel restrictions on movements across the country.
FROM BBC NEWS
Coronavirus: Americans from quarantined cruise ship evacuate from Japan
Two planes carrying hundreds of US citizens from a coronavirus-hit cruise ship have left Japan, officials say.
There were some 400 Americans on board the Diamond Princess, which has been in quarantine since 3 February.
On Sunday, Japanese officials said the number of infections on the ship had risen by 70 to 355, making it the largest cluster of cases outside China.
Meanwhile, China reported a total of 2,048 new cases on Monday – 1,933 of which were from Hubei province.
More than 70,500 people nationwide have already been infected by the virus. In Hubei alone, the official number of cases currently stands at 58,182, with 1,692 deaths. Most new cases and deaths have been reported in Wuhan, Hubei’s largest city.
In other developments:
- In Japan, a public gathering to celebrate the birthday of new Emperor Naruhito has been cancelled, due to concerns over the spread of the outbreak
- In China, the National People’s Congress standing committee has said it will meet next week to discuss a delay of this year’s Congress because of the outbreak
- At the weekend, an American woman tested positive for the virus after leaving a cruise liner docked off the coast of Cambodia.
What’s happening to the US ship?
The Diamond Princess has been quarantined in Japan’s port of Yokohama with some 3,700 people on board after a man who disembarked in Hong Kong was found to have the virus.
At least 40 US citizens who were on board are infected and will be treated in Japan, Dr Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told Face the Nation on CBS.
Two aircraft chartered by the US government left Tokyo’s Haneda Airport in the early hours of Monday.
More than 300 passengers are being repatriated voluntarily, the US state department said. Fourteen of them tested positive for the virus and were being kept separate from the other passengers, it said.
Those entering the US will undergo a 14-day quarantine, on top of the time they have already spent confined on the ship.
“And the reason for that,” Dr Fauci added, “is that the degree of transmissibility, on that cruise ship, is essentially akin to being in a hotspot.”
Some of the Americans have declined to be evacuated, preferring to wait until the ship quarantine comes to an end on 19 February.
Passenger Matt Smith, a lawyer, said he would not want to travel on a bus to the plane with possibly infected people.
To assist with relief efforts, Japan’s government has given away 2,000 iPhones to passengers on the ship – one for each cabin.
The smartphones were distributed so people could use an app, created by Japan’s health ministry, which links users with doctors, pharmacists and mental health counselors. Phones registered outside of Japan are unable to access the app.
Other evacuation flights have been arranged to repatriate residents of Israel, Hong Kong and Canada. On Monday, Australia announced that it would evacuate 200 of its citizens too.
Meanwhile, a plane carrying 175 evacuated Nepalis, mostly students, has arrived in Kathmandu from Wuhan.
Coronavirus: New China figures highlight toll on medical staff
Chinese officials have given figures for health workers infected with the new coronavirus, amid concerns about shortages of protective equipment.
Six health workers have died and 1,716 have been infected since the outbreak, they said.
The death a week ago of Doctor Li Wenliang, who tried to warn authorities early on about the virus, provoked a burst of public anger and grief.
More than 1,300 people are now known to have died from the virus.
The latest figures show 122 new deaths in China, bringing the toll to 1,381.
The total number of infections has jumped to 63,922 cases, according to the National Health Commission.
The World Health Organization said there was no major shift in the virus’s pattern of mortality or severity, despite a spike in cases in Hubei, the epicentre of the disease, on Tuesday.
Most of this was down to Hubei using a broader definition to diagnose people, said Mike Ryan, head of WHO’s health emergencies programme.
There was also no significant rise in cases outside China, the WHO said.
However, a cruise ship docked in Japan, the Diamond Princess, saw 44 new cases, bringing the total there to 218.
What is the situation with medical workers?
Zeng Yixin, vice minister of China’s National Health Commission, said 1,102 medical workers had been infected in Wuhan, where the outbreak began, and another 400 in other parts of Hubei province.
He said the number of infections among staff was increasing
“The duties of medical workers at the front are indeed extremely heavy; their working and resting circumstances are limited, the psychological pressures are great, and the risk of infection is high,” Mr Zeng said, quoted by Reuters.
Local authorities have struggled to provide protective equipment such as respiratory masks, goggles and protective suits in hospitals in the area.
One doctor told AFP news agency that he and 16 colleagues were showing possible symptoms of the virus.
Another medical worker said she and more than 100 other staff at her hospital had been quarantined. A further 30 had been confirmed to have been infected there out of a staff of 500 she told CNN.
On 7 February the plight of medical workers was highlighted by the death of Li Wenliang, a doctor at Wuhan Central Hospital who had tried to issue the first warning about the virus on 30 December.
China launches coronavirus ‘close contact detector’ app
China has launched an app that allows people to check whether they have been at risk of catching the coronavirus.
The ‘close contact detector’ tells users if they have been near a person who has been confirmed or suspected of having the virus.
People identified as being at risk are advised to stay at home and inform local health authorities.
The technology shines a light on the Chinese government’s close surveillance of its population.
To make an inquiry users scan a Quick Response (QR) code on their smartphones using apps like the payment service Alipay or social media platform WeChat.
Once the new app is registered with a phone number, users are asked to enter their name and ID number. Every registered phone number can then be used to check the status of up to three ID numbers.
The app was jointly developed by government departments and the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation and supported by data from health and transport authorities, according to the state-run news agency Xinhua.
It is widely known that the Chinese government conducts high levels of surveillance on its citizens but experts in the field suggest, in this case at least, it will not be seen as controversial within the country.
Hong Kong-based technology lawyer at the law firm DLA Piper Carolyn Bigg told the BBC: “In China, and across Asia, data is not seen as something to be locked down, it’s something that can be used. Provided it’s done in a transparent way, with consent where needed.”
“From a Chinese perspective this is a really useful service for people… It’s a really powerful tool that really shows the power of data being used for good,” she added.
The Chinese government defines ‘close contact’ as coming near to, with no effective protection, confirmed, suspected or mild cases of the coronavirus while the person was ill, even if they were showing no symptoms at the time.
‘Close contact’ covers:
For example, all air passengers within three rows of an infected person, as well as cabin staff, are seen as being in close contact, while other passengers would be recorded as having general contact.
When it comes to air-conditioned trains, all passengers and crew members in the same carriage are regarded as being in close contact.
Nissan to shut Japan factory due to shortage of Chinese parts
Nissan is the latest car maker to temporarily shut one of its factories as it can’t get parts from China.
The firm will halt production for two days at a plant in Japan which makes the Serena and X-Trail models.
Global car brands are facing similar disruptions as much of China’s manufacturing sector remains locked down due to the deadly coronavirus.
Hyundai temporarily closed its factories in South Korea last week due to a shortage of Chinese parts.
In fact, many of the world’s biggest car makers are dealing with dwindling supplies as factories across China remain closed.
China is the world’s manufacturing powerhouse and a major part of the global supply chain for the automotive industry, making key parts and components. Hubei, where the coronavirus outbreak first started, is a major car manufacturing hub.
Last week, Fiat Chrysler said it was considering halting production at one of its European plants due to difficulty in sourcing parts from China. It joins a long list of car brands that rely on Chinese exports.
”It only takes one missing part to stop a line,” said Mike Dunne, a consultant to the car industry in Asia.
Many factories and car plants were due to reopen on Monday after an extended Chinese New Year break. Some restarted production, but others remained closed due to local authority restrictions and lack of workers. Nissan expects to restart production in China on 17 February.
In a statement, Nissan said: “Due to supply shortages of parts from China, Nissan Kyushu in Japan will carry out temporary production adjustments on February 14 and 17.” It stressed there was no impact on its other Japanese factories.
Nissan is part of a French-Japanese strategic partnership that includes Renault and Mitsubishi.
Coronavirus: Senior Chinese officials ‘removed’ as death toll hits 1,000
China has “removed” several senior officials over their handling of the coronavirus outbreak – as the death toll passed 1,000.
The party secretary for the Hubei Health Commission, and the head of the commission, were among those who lost their jobs.
They are the most senior officials to be demoted so far.
The deputy director of the local Red Cross was also removed for “dereliction of duty” over “handling of donations”.
The two Hubei party officials will be replaced by a national figure – the deputy director of China’s National Health Commission, Wang Hesheng.
On Monday, some 103 died in Hubei province alone, a daily record, and the national death toll is now 1,016.
But the number of new infections nationally was down almost 20% from the day before, from 3,062 to 2,478.
Hubei’s health commission confirmed 2,097 new cases in the province on Monday, down from 2,618 the previous day.
According to state media, there have been hundreds of sackings, investigations and warnings across Hubei and other provinces during the outbreak.
But removal from a certain role – while regarded as a censure – does not always mean the person will be sacked entirely, as it can also mean demotion.
As well as being removed from their posts, officials can also be punished by the ruling Communist Party.
For example, the deputy head of the Red Cross, Zhang Qin, was given “a serious intra-Party warning as well as a serious administrative demerit”, state media said.
Earlier this month, the deputy head of the Wuhan bureau of statistics was removed, also with a “serious intra-party warning as well as a serious administrative demerit for violating relevant regulations to distribute face masks”.
The head of the health commission of Huanggang, the second-worst hit city in Hubei after Wuhan, has also been removed.
39 death mystery
The deaths of 39 Chinese people found in a truck in a UK industrial park this week has sparked horror and revulsion around the world.
D5 Creation